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- 20 Military Strategy & War Concepts | 40 General Thinking Concepts
20 Military Strategy & War Concepts | 40 General Thinking Concepts
Welcome to the 71 new members of the Mental Models, Concepts, and Frameworks newsletter who have joined us since last week.
20 important Military strategy & War concepts
40 concepts for improving general thinking
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Military Strategy & War Concepts
Seeing the Front
One of the most valuable military tactics
Involves “personally seeing the front line” before making decisions—not always relying on advisors, maps, and reports, all of which can be either faulty or biased
Seeing the Front improves the quality of insights
Asymmetric Warfare
A type of warfare in which two parties have different military capabilities or methods of war
In such a case, the weak party must take advantage of its special advantages or the opponent’s weaknesses in order to have any opportunity to achieve its goals
Two-Front War
Occurs when opposing forces approach two geographically separate fronts in order to divide and disperse the defenders troops, and create logistical difficulties
WW2 was a good example: Germany was forced to defend two front's when they became enemies with Russia
Counterinsurgency
Various tactics and strategies used to combat armed insurgency (violent, armed war against authority waged by small forces)
It's the blend of comprehensive civilian and military efforts designed to simultaneously contain insurgency and address its root causes
Mutually Assured Destruction
A situation where two parties are in a stalemate, and neither can make a move without causing their own destruction
Paradoxically, the stronger two opponents become, the less likely they may be to destroy one another
Proxy War
An armed conflict between two states or non-state actors which act on the instigation or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities
Example: Cuban Missile Crisis
Guerilla Warfare
A form of warfare where small groups of soldiers, such as paramilitary or armed civilians use military tactics including ambushes, sabotage, raids, petty warfare, hit-and-run tactics, and mobility, to fight a larger and less-mobile traditional military
Flypaper Theory
Involves deliberately attracting enemies to a location where they are more vulnerable, like attracting flies to flypaper, usually also directing them far away from your valuable assets
For example, U.S. ground forces in Iraq preventing attacks on U.S. soil
Fighting the Last War
Armies by default use strategies, tactics, and technology that worked for them in the past (last war)
The problem is that what was most useful for the last war may not be best for the next one. This can mean smaller forces prevail with better tactics
Rumsfeld's Rule
You go to war with the army you have. They’re not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time
Organizations hardly ever have perfect resources, but they can't always afford to wait until they have better ones before moving forward
Trojan Horse
A strategy in which a warring party is tricked into letting in the enemy behind their defenses
A Trojan horse can refer to anything that persuades you to lower your defenses by seeming harmless or even attractive, like a gift
Exit Strategy
A means of leaving a current situation, either after a predetermined objective has been achieved, or as a strategy to mitigate failure
At worst, an exit strategy will save face; at best, it will deliver an objective worth more than continuing the previous plan
Empty Fort Strategy
Involves using reverse psychology (and luck) to deceive the enemy into thinking that an empty location is full of traps and ambushes, and therefore induce the enemy to retreat
Boots On The Ground
Used to convey the belief that military success can only be achieved through the direct physical presence of troops (wearing boots) in a conflict area
Conducting a war just from afar—for example, using only air power—will not achieve the ultimate goals
Winning Hearts and Minds
A concept used in the resolution of war, insurgency, ano other conflicts, to express prevailing not by the use of superior physical force, but by making emotional or intellectual appeals to sway supporters of the other side
Containment
An attempt to contain the enemy, to prevent its further expansion, be it expanding geographically, militarily, or politically
Containing acknowledges that an undesirable event has happened, that you can't easily undo it, and so instead tries to mitigate further loss
Appeasement
Making concessions to opponents in order to avoid direct or further conflict with them
If you are in no position to meaningfully deter or contain an emerging conflict that you’d like to avoid, appeasement may be a necessary evil
Winning A Battle But Losing The War (AKA, a Phyrric Victory)
Refers to achieving a minor victory that ultimately results in a larger defeat, rendering the victory empty or hollow
It can also refer to gaining a small tactical advantage that corresponds to a wider disadvantage
Beachhead
A beachhead is a temporary line that a military unit establishes and holds until reinforcements arrive and they can make an advance
Businesses can use a beachhead by concentrating resources in one small area and succeeding first before moving on to bigger markets
Attrition Warfare
A warfare where the opponents are so strong that an end can only be reached through an extended and mutual depletion of each other’s resources
In these situations, the side with the largest reserves of resources typically wins in the long-run
General Thinking Concepts
Pain, Chemicals And Diseases
The tendency to become confused when we are in pain, under the influence of chemicals or have a physical or mental illness
Before making important decisions, ensure you are free of these influences and your senses are not distorted
Multiple Tendencies
The tendency for multiple psychological biases operating together to lead to irrationality on a tremendous scale
Corporate boards are a great example: Incentive-caused bias, Liking bias, Authority bias, Social Proof Bias, Reciprocation, and many more...
It'll Get Worse Before It Gets Better Fallacy
If someone selling you something tells you this, be wary
If the problem continues to worsen, their prediction is confirmed and you'll believe they're competent. If it improves, they're right and you'll be happy. Either way, they win
Coincidence Effect
The tendency to underestimate the inevitability of unlikely events
Due to the sheer number of events that happen daily, unlikely events are more common than you'd expect
What would be more surprising is if improbable events never came to be
The Anchor
The tendency to be subconsciously influenced by initial data points in settings including negotiations, purchases, or estimates
For example, the “recommended retail price” on a producty or an initial quote for a service may be nothing more than an anchor
Be cautious
Induction
The tendency to assume that because something has happened in the past, it will continue to happen in the future
Inductive thinking can lead to overconfidence and have devastating results
We must remember that certainties are always provisional
Forecast Illusion
Expert predictions aren't as good as we think they are
If they're wrong, they enjoy free reign with few negative consequences because hardly anyone remembers. If they're right, the world will know about it
Analyse track records when assessing predictions
Association Bias
The tendency to see connections where none exist
Example: If we eat a foreign food and feel sick afterward, we avoid it in future
We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it—and stop there
Beginner's Luck
Creating a (false) link with the past based on a positive first-experience
Your first investment in the stock market proves to be a huge success. You believe you have real skill
Bouyed by this confidence, you bet more than you can afford and lose it all
'Because' Justification
The tendency for the simple justification of "because" to be sufficient for encountering more tolerance and helpfulness for our behaviour
A: "Why haven't you done this work yet?"
B: "Because, I haven't got around to it."
A: "Oh, that's okay then!"
Contagion Bias
We avoid contact with people or objects viewed as "contaminated" by previous contact with someone or something viewed as bad
E.g., we view a person who has touched a diseased person as likely to have the disease (regardless of the contagiousness of the disease)
The Problem With Averages
Using averages is troublesome when extreme cases (outliers) dominate the distribution. In these cases, we should discount the term "average"
If someone uses the word “average,” think twice. Try to work out the underlying distribution
Motivation Crowding
The tendency for financial rewards to erode any other non-monetary motivations
When you offer your friend money to babysit, it will feel like a transaction, making them less likely to want to do it from a place of friendship
Ask: Should this be monetary?
Will Rogers Phenomenon
Occurs when moving an element from one set to another set raises the average values of both sets
Pre-conditions:
The element being moved is below average for its current set
The element being moved is above the current average of the set it's entering
Expectations
The tendency for expectations to significantly change our interpretation of reality
If we expect one thing, but get something drastically different, we'll be more affected than we would have been had we expected something in the middle
Expect the unexpected
Simple Logic
Our tendency to use sensing or intuition over thinking because rational consideration requires more willpower
We give our best guess and scrutinise less to save effort
Not everything that seems plausible is true. Reject the easy answers that pop into your head
Volunteer's Folly
The tendency for volunteers to miscalculate the impact of physical volunteering compared to making another, more impactful contribution
Volunteering is an admirable thing to do. However, we should always ask: Is this the best possible way to contribute?
Inability to Close Doors
Our tendency to do everything we can to keep open the maximum number of options
There is no such thing as a free option: each one costs mental energy and eats up precious time
We must learn to close doors to focus on the few that really matter
Neomania
The mania for all things new and shiny
When thinking of the future, we place far too much emphasis on recent technology while underestimating the role of traditional technology
Rule of thumb: Whatever has survived for X years will last another X years (Lindy Effect)
Sleeper Effect
The tendency for any knowledge that stems from an untrustworthy source to gain credibility over time
The source of the argument fades faster than the argument
In other words, your brain quickly forgets where the information came from, but not the message
Alternative Blindness
We systematically forget to compare an existing offer with the next-best alternatives
If you have trouble making a decision, remember that the choices are broader than “option A” or “option B”
Open your eyes to alternatives that aren't in plain sight
Falsification of History
We subconsciously adjust our past views to fit present ones to avoid any embarrassing proof of our fallibility
Admitting mistakes is emotionally difficult, so it's a clever coping strategy
It is safe to assume that half of what you remember is wrong
Fear of Regret
The tendency to act irrationally when faced with the feeling of making the wrong decision or missing out on an opportunity that might not come around again
We don't like to imagine feeling regretful, so we act, even if the opportunity will come around again
Personification
Humans have an impressive sense of how others think and feel. We are influenced more by human stories than statistics
When looking to influence, lead with the names and faces, not statistics
People will be more motivated when they can relate to real humans
Illusion of Attention
Our tendency to be confident that we notice everything that takes place in front of us, when in reality, we often see only what we are focusing on
Let go of the dangerous illusion that you perceive everything
Strategic Misrepresentation
The tendency to falsely assert our ability to complete a task when we believe our false assertion is required to receive the opportunity
Example: Bending the truth in job interviews
Don't go on what people claim; look at their past performance
Overthinking
Our tendency to think too much and cut off our mind from our intuition
When should we listen to our head and when to our gut?
Head: When faced with a new, complex scenario where we have no expertise
Gut: When faced with practiced activities or familiar questions
Deformation Professionalle
The tendency for people to solve problems using their areas of expertise
Examples: Armies think of military solutions first. Engineers, structural
This becomes hazardous when people apply specialised proccesses in areas where they don't belong
Illusion of Skill
The tendency to falsely attribute success to skill, forgetting the critical role luck plays
In some fields, skill plays the critical role in success: Pilots, Lawyers, Accountants
In others, luck becomes more important:: Entrepreneurship, Business, Investing
Feature-Positive Effect
The tendency to place greater emphasis on what is present rather than what is absent. Absence is much harder to detect than presence
We realize if there is a war, but we do not appreciate the absence of war during peacetime
The same for good health
Cherry-Picking
The tendency to showcase the most attractive features of something, while downplaying or hiding the less attractive
Examples: Company earnings reports, real estate images, internal company meetings
Remember: You can learn more from the 'leftover' cherries
Intention-to-Treat Error
In reputable studies, participants should be analyzed as belonging to whatever treatment group they were randomized into, whether or not the treatment course was completed as intended—this helps avoid bias
"Once randomised, always analysed”
News Illusion
The tendency for news to distort our mental maps of the risks and threats we actually face
News is created with gripping stories and sensational “facts” to capture our attention
Instead of news, we should read timeless content: background articles and books
Eloquence
We underestimate our ability to become persuasive speakers or writers through dedicated learning
We aren't born persausive, we study to become persausive
Those who can persaude effectively can start a movement. It follows, anyone can start a movement
6 Principles of Influence - CLASSR
6 universal principles we can use to persaude or influence, particularly in marketing, but can be used in any business setting to win hearts and minds
See Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert B. Cialdini for more
Commitment & Consistency: Once we make a choice, we work to behave consistently with that choice in order to save face
Liking: We agree with people we like, and others agree with us if they like us
Authority: We are more likely to say “yes” to others who are authorities
Social Proof: We look to other people to provide us with the correct actions to take. The more people we see taking an action, the more influenced we are
Scarcity: We want something more when there is very little of it
Reciprocation: We want to repay favours from others
A Crowdsourced List Of The Best Resources On The Internet
And finally, for those of you who missed it last week, I shared a list of the best resources I've found over the last 7 years across a broad range of topics including:
Being effective
Communication
Learning
Reading
Startups
Wealth Creation
...and lots more!